http://www.miseryindex.us/urbymonth.asp
The recession actually looks a lot like the one in the early '80s. That one went from 8% to 8% in a little over 3 years, hitting 10% along the way.
This can be exploited by hiring top talent now, or soon (like me!). Human capital is in high supply now but it will start to decrease in supply soon.
Other factors in consideration - Europe not looking so strong relative to USA any more with the problems in Greece and Spain, and Chinese growth being unsustainable due to environmental damage (loss of soil to erosion, polluted water, etc) and poor quality control (remember the poisoned baby formula?) fuelling the economic spike. China is getting stricter about these things which will slow their economy and if nothing else resources are getting used up unsustainably I suspect.
Not only will China's astounding growth slow, but the dollars they hold make it in their interest to build up the US economy, and my home state of California is the American gateway to Asia...which means the current financial collapse here in CA should be short term.
First posted by me at
http://www.playtheimmortalgame.com/board/showthread.php?threadid=128265&page=2
See also
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/60-minutes-michael-lewis-the-big-short/
EDIT - 3/23/10
"The main thing right now for the stock markets is that the issue [House of Representatives vote on "Health Care Reform") has FINALLY been resolved and everyone now knows what the new rules will be. I'm sure most businesses hated the uncertainly of not really knowing whether this thing would pass or not.
That being said, I agree - as the propsects for passing healthcare reform was growing increasingly certain, there was and is no evidence of investors fleeing in terror. "
- Melanarpes
http://www.playtheimmortalgame.com/board/showthread.php?threadid=128320&page=2
EDIT - I'm having way too much fun with the title. Go nerds.
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